Predicting the Rate of Transmission of Viral Diseases Using GARCH

As the effect of COVID-19 is increasing rapidly every day, it becomes very difficult for the survival of many people, and there is a high effect on the economic situations of every country which is affected by it. In the same way, it is affecting all states of India and causing an economic crisis. This paper deals with the analysis of the impact caused by COVID-19 on each state in India and also gives an estimated date on which the effect will reduce and may even become zero along with the analysis report of overall India. For the predicting of the effect, we have used generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) algorithm which has produced root mean squared error (RMSE) of around 5.89 for some of the states and other with 20.05 due to the data abnormality. The predicted data for each state is projected in the figures using the line plots. And the resulted graphs are explained clearly. The accuracy of the proposed model is around 94.6%–96.8% for the states with good data and less RMSE and 80% for the states with abnormal data and high RMSE value. From the produced results of the proposed methodology, the dates of which the effect of COVID-19 will decrease are calculated for the states having a high number of cases. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

COVID-19 induced severe respiratory failure in early gestation with favourable outcome: A close escape

A small percentage of pregnant females suffer from respiratory failure during the course of their pregnancy which amounts to about 2 percent of all pregnancies. Usually the cause for this respiratory failure remains preeclampsia or amniotic fluid embolism. However, with the ongoing pandemic, an emerging cause of respiratory failure is Infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV 2). Chest wall compliance is decreased in pregnancy hence making it further difficult to fight COVID-19. We present a case of 31 year old pregnant female with gestational age of 28 weeks who presented with acute respiratory failure with severe hypoxia due to COVID-19. She was treated with non invasive ventilation, remdesavir, steroids and other supportive measures. She was given incentive spirometry and her oxygen saturation imporved drastically. Ultimately she was shifted on high flow oxygen and was discharged in stable condition making it a close escape. Thus we showcase the importance of diagnosing COVID-19 induced respiratory failure early and the substantial role of incentive spirometry in COVID-19 which is an underrated aspect of chest rehabilitation during the ongoing pandemic.